<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Professional Horseplayer Newsletter: Gambler’s Life]]></title><description><![CDATA[Notes from a professional horseplayer’s daily life]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/s/gamblers-life</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WbVK!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Ftheprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com%2Fimg%2Fsubstack.png</url><title>The Professional Horseplayer Newsletter: Gambler’s Life</title><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/s/gamblers-life</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 05:13:53 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Advanced Wagering Strategies LLC]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[diaryofaprofessionalhorseplayer@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[diaryofaprofessionalhorseplayer@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[diaryofaprofessionalhorseplayer@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[diaryofaprofessionalhorseplayer@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[What I Bet: It’s a Crazy Time of the Year]]></title><description><![CDATA[Horses, Tennis, MLB, NBA]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/what-i-bet-its-a-crazy-time-of-the</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/what-i-bet-its-a-crazy-time-of-the</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 01:38:56 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Besides betting the ponies,  I also bet Tennis,  Baseball and the NBA.  I dabble in a few other things as well.  But here&#8217;s how I manage it.</p><p>Right now,  is prime time for horse racing.   It&#8217;s just really waking now from a winter slumber here in the U.S.  and will be absolutely cranking NON STOP until the end of Saratoga this summer.  FUCKING AWESOME,  right?   I&#8217;m all in with my only off day being either Sunday,  Monday or Tuesday.  Essentially, there are globally around 500 races a day I can bet on across thoroughbred and standardbred (harness) racing.</p><p>Personally,  I can&#8217;t believe we are in the middle of this gambling renaissance&#8230;.a time when more people want to gamble for a living and are dabbling in sports betting and totally ignoring horse racing.   </p><p>Sheer madness.  </p><p> I can do a bang up job handicapping a horse race in a few minutes.  There are 500 races per day around the globe.  No other sport has as much wagering opportunity.   You can literally make a living with a $10000 bankroll in horse racing by churning throughout the day  Try that with baseball, basketball, or any of the major sports.  If you want to make $100k a year betting sports,  you&#8217;ll need a whopper of a bankroll many times higher than a horseplayer bankroll and your unit size will need to be $10000.   Let&#8217;s say you beat -110 odds at the required 52.38% to break even,  If I were betting mere $1000 units,  I would need to make 769 bets a month and have strike at 52.38% to clear 10k a month.  Your actual bankroll will need to be hundreds of thousands of dollars to get that kind of action down (i.e. money tied up while you wait for a game to be over).</p><p>In the peak of MLB season,  I get,  maybe, three bets a day.  Horse racing I average about 4-5 bets per hour.</p><p>If you&#8217;re playing with a small bankroll it&#8217;s my belief that ONLY HORSERACING will allow you pay yourself a salary, with less risk of ruin.</p><p>But I digress.  </p><p>Tennis is also heating up.  We&#8217;re between the Australian Open and clay season,  but essentially,  Tennis is big through September.  Tennis,  though,  is so much more than the big tournaments.  The calendar has expanded as has the week.  Professional tennis that you can bet on is basically 24 hours a day,  7 days a week.  Like horse racing,  it&#8217;s a churn game. Surfaces switches matter.  Form matters.  Who has beat who (class).  Favorites dominate and the betting action is SMART because there is real data integrity.  I mean here that handicapping really matters and you can build, maintain, and extend an edge.   I spend about 90 minutes a day pouring over data and looking for soft lines.  That&#8217;s it.   </p><p>Of course,  Baseball season has kicked off -  I love baseball.   Besides Tennis and Horse Racing,  IMO,  it&#8217;s the third best sport for professionals to bet.  All three of these sports are placing where you can build the edge I mentioned.  I wait for baseball season to percolate through the end of May.  By then we know a lot of what&#8217;s happening and which teams are playing above or below expectations.  I also have enough real data to blend into my projections,  (and correct my pre-season projections).  And voila!  Baseball requires extreme patience and extreme bankroll discipline.  You have to be certain you have an edge and then just wait for that edge to pay the bills.  Sometimes it takes to the end of the summer.   Most of the money I make on baseball comes from betting the shittiest teams in the league.</p><p>NBA, well,  it&#8217;s winding down.  I bet totals in the NBA - so no need to get involved in the playoffs.  I&#8217;ve got 45 days to go and then it&#8217;s done.</p><p>If you want to be a professional gambler,  I think that&#8217;s awesome.  You can do it.  You&#8217;ll work harder than anyone you know.  But you won&#8217;t work for any idiots (save, yourself) and you&#8217;ll be the master of your own destiny.</p><p>You also need to be realistic.   You can&#8217;t start with a $1000 bankroll  or even $100000.   If you want to start with sports betting and are serious.   Learn everything you can about horse racing and go pro there.  Learn about churn,  bankroll management,  probabilities,  value in an environment where you have 500 wagering opportunities a day that you can be reasonably informed about -  where you can get instant feedback (horse races are 2 minutes long).  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Today’s Racing: What To Do When It Comes Up Short]]></title><description><![CDATA[Yesterday was a phenomenal day with a 11% return on all wagers.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/todays-racing-what-to-do-when-it</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/todays-racing-what-to-do-when-it</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2026 16:17:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/47268359-3eac-4e17-a8ad-e818e974e1f2_875x1067.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday was a phenomenal day with a 11% return on all wagers.</p><p>Today,  however,  is not looking promising yet.</p><p>It&#8217;s 11:05am and I&#8217;ve nearly made it through English and Irish racing.  In the process I&#8217;ve broken one of my golden rules,  don&#8217;t dig myself into a hole early in the day.  I&#8217;m about $350 down on one really bad bet where I didn&#8217;t trust my own instincts (and data).  French racing was kinder where I recouped $400 on a heavy favorite that I really loved.</p><p>US racing today looks really ho-hum.   I have scanned Gulfstream, Laurel, Santa Anita, Aqueduct and Sunland.  Sunland is having several stakes races today but my first pass at looking the speed and likely pace yielding nothing other than the races,  at first glance,  looked like toss ups.</p><p>I&#8217;ve run the data for Saratoga harnesses.  There should be some action there.   In a few hours,  I&#8217;ll take my first look at Australia and then Japan.</p><p>The point is,  to me,  when nothing really fancies me,  I try not to get over invested in the day.  I&#8217;ll get involved but will keep it light.  Usually,  I like to try and have a developed point of view around where I think my profits will come from.  Lots of Sunday experience suggests that Santa Anita,  Sunland,  Australia and Japan are probably places where I will find bets.  </p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Horseplayers’ Enemy Within]]></title><description><![CDATA[Process, edge and risk tolerance]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-horseplayers-enemy-within</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-horseplayers-enemy-within</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 22:44:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/de527142-5bd8-462f-9ff0-a757b1a79655_2360x1640.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every day is a minefield in racing.  Every starting gate a danger,  every race a minefield of potential disasters looming. The only thing we control is why we bet, how much we bet and what we do when we win or lose.</p><p>Process is the key to survival when mortal danger looms all around.  It&#8217;s the same for airplane pilots.  Though as gamblers we don&#8217;t deal with life threatening consequences like pilots do,  we do deal with the destruction of bankroll and all the disasters therein.  Process makes things a little bit more boring, a little less exciting.  </p><p>Gambling is high-risk, low tolerance activity where small mistakes compound.  If my advantage is between 1 and 5% post rebate,  even small mistakes can destroy a days work.   The most catastrophic mistake for me is ALWAYS violating my own bankroll rules for how much I bet.  Whether I win or lose,  when I bet more than I should have,  I invited my emotions to the dance.  And that, well, is really fucking dumb.</p><p>Your armor,  your firewall is the edge you see in your betting.   I&#8217;ve documented 37 market and handicapping scenarios where I believe I have an advantage.  I have another ~20 or so that I am always working on.   I generally stake these scenarios to a pre-determined schedule based on the live odds and where I think there could be an edge.  </p><p>I study all these processes.  Document them.  And do everything I can think to preserve, extend, duplicate, and otherwise build on these advantages.  These advantages are why what I do isn&#8217;t truly gambling.  I&#8217;m not risking a little to make a lot.   Risking a little to make a lot is what you do when have negative expected value,  that&#8217;s the lottery. </p><p>I&#8217;d say I&#8217;m risking a little to make a little.    If you could win a coin toss 51/100 times,  you&#8217;d want to toss that coin as many times as possible.  If you have an edge, the little for a little logic works.  Hence, why at the Blackjack table if you sit down with your chips you are risking a little,  to make a little, with no edge and only the prospect of eventual bankroll loss the longer you play.</p><p>I know guys that play just big Pick 4s and Pick 5s.  They are generally risking a lot to make a lot. Generally, most of the guys are either not profitable or don&#8217;t even know. Regardless,  I could never do what they do.  I don&#8217;t have the patience to win just a few big Pick 5s a year.<br> <br>Computer-teams or CAWs,  risk a lot to make a little.  That&#8217;s what makes them such pariahs in the pools.  They too have a small edge - they just put a lot more money at that edge.  </p><p>Whatever your strategy is,  you need to be sure you have an edge and a process to develop and maintain it  There&#8217;s actually not much luck involved at all.</p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bankroll Churn]]></title><description><![CDATA[The psychological challenge of winning and losing at the same time]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/bankroll-churn</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/bankroll-churn</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2025 19:19:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-P5y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1b7bb48-c56f-4ed2-acd6-6f19a2138938_1980x1180.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the fun things about doing this 363 days a year is managing a declining active bankroll.  </p><p>See, for every wager I make I expect to lose at worse, 3% pre-rebate.  So while rebates are accumulating and paid or redeeemed later,  the active bankroll is &#8230;.actively decreasing. </p><p>This is a challenge because the money in your account is an in your face reminder of what kind of day you&#8217;re having.</p><p>A declining bankroll triggers chasing and playing races outside of your plan (both staking and race/wager selection).   The worst is when both of these poor decisions happen at the same time:  chasing and betting more on a race or runner you wouldn&#8217;t have otherwise bet on.</p><p>I wrote this post as a reminder to myself to not get worked up over short term swings in bankroll,  or even slowly depleting bankroll.   Stay steady.</p><p>If you&#8217;re going to chase,  chase on something with a short price that you liked except maybe for the price.   If your staking is going to increase (which is almost always a bad idea unless you are very, very sharp) be sure the odds are going down.  Landing a Hail Mary in horse racing is a tough business,  heck even landing a favorite t can be excruciatingly painful.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-P5y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1b7bb48-c56f-4ed2-acd6-6f19a2138938_1980x1180.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-P5y!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1b7bb48-c56f-4ed2-acd6-6f19a2138938_1980x1180.png 424w, 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stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Visit to Charles Town]]></title><description><![CDATA[Yesterday I was at Parx, as I detailed here on the site.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/a-visit-to-charles-town</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/a-visit-to-charles-town</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2025 18:34:35 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday I was at Parx, as I detailed here on the site.</p><p>Charles Town is another track that I love.   I love that it&#8217;s year round.  I love the funky 4.5f dirt sprints.  I like how the jockeys ride.   Sure,  this isn&#8217;t New York or Kentucky racing quality-wise,  but it&#8217;s still entertaining.   Its parent company, Penn Entertainment, deserves the robust support of horseplayers.   </p><p>It&#8217;s really number three in the business behind Stronach and TwinSpires.  They operate Penn, Charles Town, the Meadows,  Mahoning, Zia,  Plainridge,  Bangor, Retama and have an interest in Sam Houston.   It&#8217;s hard to imagine what horse racing would look like without them.</p><p>But I digress&#8230;</p><p>After a lovely drive down from Pennsylvania&#8230;.I stopped in Lancaster for some Shoo Fly Pie in Amish country,  then visited Harper&#8217;s Ferry, where John Brown attempted his slave uprising in 1859 and then onward a few clicks down the road to Charles Town Races</p><p>The best bet on the card was in the first race.  A turf sprinter had shipped into Charles Town. Normally shippers require some extra research into the trainer and the horse&#8217;s background.  But this horse had form and as a turf sprinter, I wasn&#8217;t concerned that he couldn&#8217;t handle CT&#8217;s sharper corners.   It was his first start on the dirt,  and the pedigree suggested no issue.   He won easily and that was the high point of the card for me.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2228644,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/178846417?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzBB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1df11c5-2d26-488c-b015-188554ae2415_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Another great thing, the Charles Town visit made me realize is how approachable the sport is.  If I message track handicappers or announcers on X, I get a response.  If I want to stand around and talk to a jockey as he walks away from the winners circle,  I can do that too.  <br><br>Charles Town has an interesting arrangement, the winners dismount by the winners circle located near the finishing line.  Then walk back the length of the apron to the paddock and jockeys area.   Leaving plenty of time to engage with them and take pictures.  JD Acosta and I even had a little chat along the fence about another jockey&#8217;s claim of foul against him.   It was total bullshit, we agreed, and had a good chat under the lights.</p><p>I stayed at the Charles Town Inn which is trackside and part of the facility.  The OTB area is beneath the grandstands, and is just OK.   I though Parx was a far better setup.  The casino is really quite large.  Lots of table games and dining options.  Next time,  I&#8217;ll stick around for a few days.</p><p>Onward to Churchill Downs.</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[PARX: A Love Affair]]></title><description><![CDATA[PARX is a horseplayers' gem]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/parx-a-love-affair</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/parx-a-love-affair</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2025 18:11:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like AM radio,  cigars,  paper maps and fountain pens.   I like the old ways.</p><p>PARX,  Philadelphia&#8217;s racetrack,  is as close to going back in horseplayer time as one can experience.   </p><p>PARX races early in the week pretty much year round.   If you&#8217;re a diehard racing fan,  the track is one of the few running early in the week in the winter. The clientele are the grizzled old horseplayers that absolutely love going to the races.</p><p>It&#8217;s nice every now and then to get to PARX.   I love being on the floor with horseplayers&#8230;. hundreds of them passionate about racing.  Cursing, debating, cajoling.</p><p>As I write this,  some on is screaming about a jockey&#8217;s ride.  Someone else is screaming at a simulcast monitor in Chinese.  Busted tickets are everywhere.</p><p>Like most tracks,  the young people are at home watching on their screens but they are missing out.  This is an experience.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1933567,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/178717999?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ogf5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f4bfea6-ea1c-4560-9755-885b91ac70bc_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Literally the guy sitting next to me is chomping an unlit cigar and has a fedora on.  His name is Kevin and he takes the bus here as often as he can.  My guess is that he was 65 years old.</p><p>He eyed my iPad suspiciously.   &#8220;All I need is this,&#8221;  he explained holding up his <em>Daily Racing Form</em>.  </p><p>Over the course of the day, Kevin was generous with his time.</p><p>Hanging out here is one of life&#8217;s great pleasures for guys like Kevin.  It&#8217;s free.  You&#8217;re surrounded by people that love what you love.</p><p>The track itself was pretty welcoming.  The staff I talked to were friendly.  The food was cheap, basic and good enough.  The bathrooms clean.  Lots of well litplaces to sit. And all just steps from the apron and the finish line.</p><p>Some horseplayers poo-poo the tracks like PARX that offer few prestigious races.   I don&#8217;t.  I get every bit as excited about low level races as top level races.  I love the game and the experience of going.   I ended my day well ahead, staying to the final race.  </p><p>Tonight I&#8217;m driving to Charles Town.</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The 11am Panic and the 6pm Regret: Inside a Professional Horseplayer’s Workday]]></title><description><![CDATA[This job doesn&#8217;t have a punch clock.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-11am-panic-and-the-6pm-regret</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-11am-panic-and-the-6pm-regret</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2025 13:23:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2></h2><p>This job doesn&#8217;t have a punch clock. But it sure feels like it does.</p><p>Let me walk you through a typical day in the grind &#8212; with all its adrenaline spikes, self-doubt, and end-of-day second-guessing.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>6:00am &#8211; Spot Plays</strong></h3><p>Depending on the day and the season, races could be running in the 6am East Coast hour in Hong Kong, France, South Africa.  While I&#8217;ve usually got a few hours before my morning bread and butter starts with the UK and Ireland, I usually have several plays eyed on each card.  All of these markets have good early betting indicators to follow.   By 7am, I am usually at the gym.   <br><br>By 830am, I&#8217;ve manually reviewed every race in the UK and Ireland and cross referencing my model with trip notes.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png" width="1235" height="876" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:876,&quot;width&quot;:1235,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:102176,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/169457779?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!spwS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d328e77-d1cb-4ccc-adeb-04c1aeaa049b_1235x876.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><h3><strong>9:00am &#8211; Data Deluge</strong></h3><p>Coffee in hand. Scratches downloaded, it&#8217;s time to take my first pass at what&#8217;s happening in the US today. I open four tabs, three Excel sheets, and one giant notebook. The clock starts ticking as I look at the model output and painstakingly look, first, at the races with clear pace scenarios that I&#8217;ve identified.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>11:00am &#8211; The Calm Before the Storm</strong></h3><p>This is the danger zone. Post times in the US will be starting soon.  By this point, I&#8217;ve identified the races I might like and have notated the races I&#8217;ll be following.  Typically, this is about 1-4 races happening in the US.   Wagering is still ongoing with France,  the UK and Ireland and things are really picking up</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>1:00pm &#8211; Flow State</strong></h3><p>This is the sweet spot. I&#8217;ve locked in plays. The tote is behaving. A horse I love goes off at 6/1 and wins with ears pricked.</p><p>I feel like a genius. For now.   </p><p>Usually by this point, I&#8217;m still sticking with my plan and there is only slight danger of deviating.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>6:00pm &#8211; Regret Theater</strong></h3><p>Every night ends the same: the replay reel.</p><p>Why did I second-guess that 7 horse? Why didn&#8217;t I go deeper in Race 6? Why did I press that C-level opinion?  </p><p>The grind doesn&#8217;t care how smart I am. It only rewards the sharpest version of me &#8212; and that version is getting harder to find by this hour.</p><p>By this time, I&#8217;ve downloaded Australia data.   Australia is where the day is made or broken for me usually, I&#8217;ve gotten tired and am more likely to deviate from the days plan,  bet too much, or bet too many races.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>This job is beautiful. It&#8217;s brutal. It&#8217;s addicting. It&#8217;s draining.</strong><br>And the best defense against the daily spike-and-crash? A routine. A rhythm. And an honest post-mortem.</p><p>Every. Single. Day.</p><p>I write articles like this for myself to back and read them, to think about what I need to do each and every day to improve my execution and sharpen my edge.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Day At the Horseplayers' Office]]></title><description><![CDATA[12 Hours In...Trials and Tribulations]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/a-day-at-the-horseplayers-office</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/a-day-at-the-horseplayers-office</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2025 22:29:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/84ccb651-d09b-4123-9985-04a4f7292f18_263x192.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Things started early for me in South Africa.   I had some nice early successes.  Then in the pent-ultimate race of the day,  I dutched several horses to win.  I never do this and I&#8217;m not good at it outside of the United States (my contender selection and modeling for large field turf races in South Africa is nascent&#8230;as such I am not predicting off odds with the accuracy I need to dutch).</p><p>The good news is that South Africa&#8217;s pari-mutuel tote, does however, have just enough liquidity to make the odds more reliable.  Similar to Ireland, the UK and upper tier tracks in the U.S. (and very much unlike the Australian tote Americans&#8217; play into for down under racing&#8230;.where low liquidity and last minute bets sized to correct the market reign supreme).  </p><p>But I digress&#8230;I ate shit on that bet in South Africa&#8230;I was certain that one of my four horses I dutched would win,  the odds were there,  and well&#8230;they all finished 2-3-4-5.   It was a dumb bet mostly because I never do it and second, because I&#8217;m still a South Africa novice.</p><p>Speaking of dumb,  I did my best to not lose too much money in Hong Kong&#8217;s Happy Valley this morning until a late race where I loved a horse and it&#8217;s price.  But I bet larger than my rules.  The horse finished 4th.  Why was this dumb? Well, I broke my bet sizing rules.  Second,  I&#8217;ve been terrible at Happy Valley in the rain and, of course, it was raining.  Lessons to be learned:  when it doubt SKIP IT.   Hong Kong is co-founding - the swings are wild, sometimes I&#8217;m on target and sometimes I can&#8217;t get a few favorites in row I like home.</p><p>The other queen of the East Coast morning is French racing.  I won&#8217;t bore you with French racing (too much).  I have a new model I&#8217;m using that is based largely on form.  It was right two of the four times I used it at detecting value plays that paid.  Big deal.  In a thousand rate, sample it shows profit - the problem is it will take two years to get a thousand races in.</p><p>The queen of the afternoon is US for Tbreds,  where I was flawless today&#8230;good bets, proper sizing, good selections, good race discipline.</p><p>I&#8217;m turning the page now though&#8230;.just doing spot harness plays and gearing up for Australia.   The last three nights I&#8217;ve had a total of 7 bets I&#8217;ve found in Australia.  The ROI has been great.  Today, the first pass of my numerous models show a a staggering 14 possible value bets based on the projected prices coming out of the bookmakers.  I&#8217;ll be spending about 2 hours reviewing those before Australia gets going.</p><p>4200 wagered,  4000 returned with nearly all the losses stemming from three dumb bets.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Horse Racing Content Trap]]></title><description><![CDATA[Don&#8217;t Fall In and Waste Your TIme]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-horse-racing-content-trap</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/the-horse-racing-content-trap</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 24 May 2025 12:52:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af2aa0c8-3d88-4ab0-8e5b-a79cbfc29068_224x225.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>99% of all content written about horse racing online is total crap.   If I read every pick and handicapping article, for instance, about this years&#8217; Kentucky Derby,  I wouldn&#8217;t have become any smarter and I would have made the same bets that I did. </p><p>I can&#8217;t believe how many pundits and touts don&#8217;t actually share any analysis or facts when they talk about a race and issue a pic.</p><p>What do I read?  </p><p>I scan the Racing Post for articles about the industry in the UK and Ireland.  I scan the Daily Racing Form as part of my morning process of finding horses to single or favorites likely to be heavily backed (what I call &#8220;Diamonds or Dogs&#8221;;  which I occasionally share here&#8230;and lest you think me hypocritical&#8230;Diamonds or Dogs are categorically not picks&#8230;they are horses I believe are likely to be heavy favorites in pari-mutuel pools&#8230;I share them as I think they are a valuable starting point).  </p><p>I have a few handicappers that I like and read their opinions on.  One that I can name are a few of the guys at <a href="https://fatbaldguyracing.com/">FatBaldGuyRacing.com</a>,  they provide the why behind their selections and sometimes highlight things I wouldn&#8217;t have found on my own.  I also like <a href="https://www.whisperer.co.za/">Matthew Stevens&#8217; The Horse Whisperer </a>for South Africa and the UK,  and <a href="https://hutchishonkers.com/">Hutchi&#8217;s Honkers</a> for Hong Kong.  While they are all, I guess, pick services I am using later really for form analysis.</p><p>But I digress,  what the heck is the content trap?</p><p>The content trap is the illusion of becoming better at this game as you passively consume masses of content produced by talking heads.   Personally,  I&#8217;ll take a pass.  </p><p>My methods are my methods are my methods and they&#8217;ve taken years to develop.  If you want to get better,  pick what you want to master and go after that.  Wisely.  Selectively.  With Purpose.</p><p>What questions do you need answered in your handicapping?  Then produce.  You may need to build a database,  or reference other expertly crafted work.  Or you&#8217;ll find books, articles or podcasts that can help you.  But you need to be selective.</p><p>As handicappers, we&#8217;re into solving puzzles.  Engage there and limit the exposure to crap.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Horse Names Still Get Me]]></title><description><![CDATA[I've been doing this a long time ---]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/horse-names-still-get-me</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/horse-names-still-get-me</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 24 May 2025 12:51:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And horse names still get me.</p><p>Old movie characters&#8230;</p><p>Funny Saying&#8230;</p><p>And then this today in Japan brings out the not so suppressed teenage boy in me</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png" width="1173" height="592" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:592,&quot;width&quot;:1173,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:69709,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/164064834?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!w8lE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77c90aff-2f2d-43df-8bf1-2609e4d55235_1173x592.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Horseplayer Wisdom from Poker Virtuoso Doyle Branson]]></title><description><![CDATA[Timeless gambling lessons]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/horseplayer-wisdom-from-poker-virtuoso</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/horseplayer-wisdom-from-poker-virtuoso</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 16 May 2025 10:05:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d8d6d9f-d611-4f67-bdfa-acf3ecf838c8_227x350.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doyle Brunson wasn&#8217;t known for horse racing per se&#8212;he was a poker legend&#8212;but the principles he preached at the poker table translate surprisingly well to the racetrack. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg" width="227" height="350" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7B0R!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cc2ee6f-6956-4aeb-8f3f-fa19edb229fc_227x350.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p></p><p>Here are horse racing lessons inspired by the mindset and teachings of Doyle Brunson:</p><p><strong>&#8220;Play tight and aggressive&#8221; &#8594; Bet selectively and decisively</strong></p><p>Doyle built his poker strategy on selective aggression&#8212;only playing strong hands, but playing them hard.</p><p>In racing terms:</p><p>Skip weak races. Bet only when you have an edge&#8212;and then go in with confidence.</p><p>Action for the sake of action is just noise.</p><p><strong>&#8220;Poker is a people game&#8221; &#8594; Racing is a human game, too</strong></p><p>Doyle emphasized reading people&#8212;bluffs, tilts, patterns.</p><p>Horse racing? Same idea. Study trainers, jockeys, barn patterns. The human element is often more predictable than the horse.</p><p><strong>&#8220;Don&#8217;t chase losses&#8221; &#8594; Don&#8217;t chase longshots out of frustration</strong></p><p>Brunson was ruthless about bankroll discipline.  The longer I do this the more I realize you can never have enough controls around how you manage your bankroll.  That should be the object of your study even more than handicapping.</p><p>No &#8216;get even&#8217; bets. Each wager must stand on its own merit, regardless of how your day&#8217;s going.  If you&#8217;re going to deviate here,  do it on horses below even money.</p><p><strong>&#8220;Poker is war. People pretend it&#8217;s a game.&#8221; &#8594; Racing is not a lottery.</strong></p><p>Brunson treated poker as a profession. Treat racing the same. Track data, analyze ROI, and don&#8217;t romanticize the process.</p><p><strong>&#8220;The key to no-limit is to put a man to a decision for all his chips.&#8221; &#8594; Press your edge when you&#8217;ve got it</strong></p><p>When everything lines up&#8212;form, pace, conditions, odds&#8212;Don&#8217;t play timid. Press the advantage when the public&#8217;s asleep.  I see odds everyday where there is tremendous value.  For me this usually means a horse between 6/5 and 2 to 1 that belongs below evens.</p><p>&#8220;It&#8217;s not about winning one big pot. It&#8217;s about surviving to play another hand.&#8221; &#8594; It&#8217;s not about one race.</p><p>The goal isn&#8217;t a jackpot, huge win. It&#8217;s long-term profit.  Build edges over thousands of races. Think like an investor, not a thrill-seeker.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Thorpedo Anna]]></title><description><![CDATA[Childlike glee...]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/thorpedo-anna</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/thorpedo-anna</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2025 23:33:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/11b66ce1-0755-4ef0-b00a-1dcf7a692bb9_238x212.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve got some childlike glee happening here.    Thorpedo Anna has drifted from 79% of the win pool to 72% with 4 MTP.  Can we get this horse to 2/5 with a 2.40 payoff?  Maybe if the trends are holding.   If we get there I&#8217;m going to hammer it at the last moment.</p><p>6:43pm Update</p><p>Just as Thorpedo got to will pay of $2.40,  the #4 scratched and that sent her back to $2.20.  What might have been a $2000 bet became a $400 bet.  Of course,  Thorpedo Anna won easily.   According to Kenny M,  Jockey Hernandez never went to the whip.  I&#8217;d be looking at the next race (Apple Blossom?) for another easy win.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Racing Post's Annual Survey]]></title><description><![CDATA[Some Highlights from Jumps vs Flats debate, Young People, and Why We Play]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/racing-posts-annual-survey</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/racing-posts-annual-survey</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Feb 2025 18:08:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6333389d-d553-4008-b53a-41ad8a9de9e3_754x447.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve enjoyed reading the Racing Post&#8217;s annual punter survey</p><p>While things are different in the US than in the UK,  some of the betting trends are similar&#8230;particular the focus on and need for the industry to continue to evolve.</p><p>I also found it interesting that all things being equal,  <a href="https://www.racingpost.com/news/the-big-punting-survey/the-big-punting-survey-2025-jump-racing-has-twice-as-many-fans-among-bettors-as-flat-racing-as2JZ6F904cV/">Jump races have more aficionados</a> than flat racing by a ratio of 2:1.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png" width="694" height="372" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s3wx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffe034ad-82b1-4e8e-a11c-3f2ac0791a54_694x372.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As a newbie to the jumps,  I&#8217;m not handicapping them yet - but I do enjoy watching them.  The races develop slowly,  each successive jump the tension builds.  Riders and horses go down.   It&#8217;s not surprise they are popular,  they are gut wrenching experience to bet on.  </p><p><strong>What about what makes a race interesting?</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png 424w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ypw3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c78502-720b-4bcc-aada-618be84fd424_692x367.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>One other part of the survey that I found interesting was, that 78% percent of respondents agreed with this statement, &#8220;I enjoy working out the puzzle a race presents,&#8221; beating out the 62% who &#8220;bet for the thrill of winning.&#8221;</p><p>I often bet at The Brook, a storied OTB that has a long history in New Hampshire and I can tell you that amongst the old timers I&#8217;ve met there,  they love working out the puzzle.   In the survey, a full ten percent said the thrill of winning meant nothing to them.</p><p>And then this nugget&#8230;<a href="https://www.racingpost.com/news/the-big-punting-survey/how-do-young-people-feel-about-racing-and-betting-the-results-might-surprise-you-aDvvB6s6b4ZX/">young people, 18-25 in the UK are betting more.</a>  And they like Jumps!  As you can see they are the only demographic moving in the right direction.</p><p>Fig.1</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png" width="694" height="386" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:386,&quot;width&quot;:694,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:145685,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/158118837?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uDIF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F422134ec-0377-4d92-a705-ab4491191f09_694x386.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Fig 2. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png" width="718" height="272" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8vdo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86db82f4-2f47-4b94-af58-7f4ccf190407_718x272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Interesting.  Very, very interesting</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Know When To Fold’Em]]></title><description><![CDATA[The words of Kenny Rogers ring true]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/know-when-to-foldem</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/know-when-to-foldem</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Feb 2025 15:37:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Entering into the last month of Turfway all I can say or think&#8230;is </p><p>&#8220;What the Fu$k happened!&#8221;</p><p>It&#8217;s been an absolute shit show for me this meet.  Favorites that I think are rock solid miss or the three top finishers in a quality race aren&#8217;t even ones I considered.  Yikes.</p><p>So I&#8217;ve folded at Turfway.  Kenny would be proud.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg" width="1456" height="1458" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1458,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:348213,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/158029779?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!17s_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6e7b75b-59a6-43f9-88a5-487964c8fa53_1498x1500.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>I&#8217;ve put away my PPs on this one.   It&#8217;s been a rough long winter.   My last winning month was in November and February was one of the worst month&#8217;s I&#8217;ve ever had. </p><p>When I look at the drivers of this poor performance&#8230;my harness ROI trailed off as it does ever winter.   Turfway was a disaster.  Oaklawn wasn&#8217;t far behind.    </p><p>But it happens and I&#8217;m not shaken.   I&#8217;ve made great strides in Australian racing,  in South Africa,  in the UK and even in the last two weeks Hong Kong.   With all the cancellations owing to weather,  the simulcast kerfuffle with Fonner and Sam Houston persisting,  had it not been for international racing,  it surely would have been the winter of my discontent.  </p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Long Slow Days as Horseplayer]]></title><description><![CDATA[Gamify the day to make it more palpable.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/long-slow-days-as-horseplayer</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/long-slow-days-as-horseplayer</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 21 Feb 2025 04:21:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e2dca89f-d681-4c0e-8296-68d20c0762ba_352x143.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mid-week days in the winter can be brutal.   Today was no exception.  There were a few bets in France and the UK early in the day.  South Africa was cancelled for the second day in a row.  And bad weather here in the US knocked Mahoning,  Turfway,  and quarterhorse racing in Louisiana.</p><p>Net net there can be a lot of time between action.   My solution is action bets and lots and lots of them.    One fun thing I like to do is really dial in and try to make a streak.  Usually this involves a streak of win bets or show bets, etc.   Handicapping and doing this professionally is about practice and watching tons and tons of races.   Looking at mountains of data while dealing with the monotony of slow days.  </p><p>It&#8217;s now 11:03pm and I&#8217;m still working my show streak.  It started in Monticello at noon time.   Eleven hours and 17 show bets later,  I&#8217;m still alive.   It&#8217;s not an accomplishment,  it&#8217;s just fun.  Like playing Pac Man or whatever silly video game that comes to mind.  I play these kind of action bets in a dedicated ADW account that is just for this purpose.  </p><p>So the streak has been going on around bringing my son to a youth hockey practice,  watching a movie,  several important meetings,  and tonight working on one of my databases,  the <strong>Australian Jockey Performance Rating System.  </strong>I&#8217;ve been working to learn Australian jockeys and this new database will give me lightning fast access to a jockey rating,  jockey-trainer pairings with high strike rates and such.</p><p>Anyway, back to the streak.  It hasn&#8217;t exactly been glamorous.  The highest payoff came earlier in the day at The Meadows when a horse paid $3.70 to show.</p><p>I&#8217;m not going to bed tonight until this streak ends.  There is still 4 more hours of Australian racing before the switch gets flipped over to South Africa.  </p><p>Down in South Africa, I&#8217;ve just received word that the weather has improved and the Fairview course is ready.  It&#8217;s going to be a great weekend with big races in Saudi Arabia,  South Africa and more.</p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Day in the Life]]></title><description><![CDATA[Work starts early if you're playing internationally]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/day-in-the-life</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/day-in-the-life</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 20 Feb 2025 17:48:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a3bac685-2eda-4b48-81a8-5ab4f07fd72e_270x187.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I've been out on the road.  Traveling overseas.  Egypt,  Malta, Switzerland.</p><p>Right now,  I am in Malta.  A lot has changed here since I was last in this tiny island nation nearly 20 years ago.   It&#8217;s more developed and more touristy,  especially around St Julian&#8217;s.  I&#8217;m here to see the Caravaggio exhibit that was recently completed.   I&#8217;ll spare you the details but Caravaggio is my favorite painter - he was a rogue&#8217;s rogue.  Stabbings.  Beatings.  Escapes from jail.    The new exhibit in the cathedral was great - and Carvaggio&#8217;s two paintings were well worth the trip.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg" width="270" height="187" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:187,&quot;width&quot;:270,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:9362,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/i/156981675?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6c0d927-3318-45ae-9af8-223692eb8b18_270x187.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SFnS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e971dd2-214b-4baa-b5b2-ed9355fad229_270x187.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>I&#8217;ve also spent substantial time this week working on new algorithms for baseball season.  I&#8217;m going all in this year betting baseball totals and in backtesting of last year,  I think I&#8217;ve identified an edge based on a variety of identifiable factors working together (time of game, weather, bullpen readiness).  But there&#8217;s a long long way to go&#8230;maybe 100+ more hours of work.</p><p>Whether it&#8217;s fitness, nutrition or handicapping - being away from your daily routine is tough.  I&#8217;m away from my Espresso machine.  My home setup.  My fast internet.</p><p>But here&#8217;s what my day looked like today.</p><p>7am.  Wake up,  looked at the tail end of racing in Australia</p><p>8am.  Breakfast and Pool.  The pool is heated at the Radisson Blu.  The food here is remarkably good.</p><p>9am.  Read the Racing Post and Daily Racing Forum.   I identified 12 races in the UK that I liked,  and one in Ireland.   Liking the possibility is different than betting.   I&#8217;ll need to look the odds available on Betfair to forecast out if I am likely to have wagers.</p><p>10am. Downloaded the US data. Put together my first pass&#8230;in US Tbreds,  this was only six races in the daytime that I&#8217;d be watching the toteboard.   I skipped Delta Downs and Charlestown as I will look at those later.  I&#8217;ve also dropped Turfway from being reviewed.  I haven&#8217;t been profitable there this meet,  so I&#8217;m done.  </p><p>11am.  US Harness Racing there was a lot I wanted to watch the tote for.  Four races at Monticello.  Four races at Saratoga.  Four Races at The Meadows and five races at Dover.   </p><p>Noon.   There is no racing in South Africa today&#8230;so that&#8217;s a skip.    </p><p>I logged into my remote server to start downloading Australian data.   I keep one server in New York in the Eastern Time zone for Australian data.  I also use another server in Singapore as back door to various Asian bookmakers and as a way to look at Betfair exchange probabilities.</p><p>I then turn to look at French racing&#8230;it&#8217;s a pretty light day in France&#8230;.two harness cards and one flats.   It takes about 45 minutes to download the cards and skim the races&#8230;in France,  I&#8217;m always just looking to toss Flat races where all the horses have more or less the same chance.  I greatly prefer to focus on races where there are likely to be co-favorites below 4-1 and go from there.  </p><p>French harness racing is stacked with value because the fields are usually huge and about 2/3 of the entrants don&#8217;t even have a chance to HTB&#8230;meaning the &#8220;Place&#8221; wager is a safe, fun place to play with lots of liquidity.</p><p>I&#8217;m on to Hong Kong racing, where I read the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing?module=sub_section_menu&amp;pgtype=section">South China Morning Post</a>.  Hong Kong is still reeling from a big wipeout that took out top jocks Vincent and Zac Purton.   The absence of Purton changes the value picture for the races in the next few weeks as he is out with an injury.  Purton gets bet down much the same way as Irad Ortiz does.  Hong Kong punters love to hammer favorites. <br><br>I love the coverage in this paper and my goal is simple with Hong Kong racing:  make a list of races to completely toss out as unpredictable and then focus on what&#8217;s left.   I rely on a specialized Hong Kong form handicapper for his advice and I mix in Yeung&#8217;s Index from Racemate (~800 USD a year).  In the end,  that means just three races&#8230;and for 2 of them there are two clear horses that are likely to be co-favorites.   </p><p>It&#8217;s 1pm and now it&#8217;s racing time!</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Ignore the Horseplayers' Doom and Gloom ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Harness racing and horse racing are two amazing worthy passions]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/ignore-the-horseplayers-doom-and</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/ignore-the-horseplayers-doom-and</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 14 Feb 2025 16:51:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We, horseplayers. are always complaining!</p><p>&#8220;It was better in the old days!&#8221;</p><p>&#8220;Computer Wagering has ruined everything!&#8221; </p><p>&#8220;Late odds changes!&#8221;</p><p>&#8220;Takeout is too high!  There is no value!&#8221;</p><p>If you&#8217;re new to the sport,  and are betting&#8230;let me tell you this.    You&#8217;ve found a great passion, hobby, or even business.  Personally, the challenge and the thrill of it never gets old.</p><p>While I wouldn&#8217;t say horseracing is universally thriving globally,  ignore the doom and gloom and nay sayers.  And have fun.  There are many reasons to be optimistic to be positive about the sport.   As a society and culture,  we are seeking connection and embracing &#8220;old as new again&#8221;.   If vinyl records can survive,  so can horseracing.  </p><p>Horse racing and harness racing are good for a lifetime of enjoyment.  When you come to this site there will never be any of the doom.  Just optimism.  Just fun.  I&#8217;ve had other passions in life,  other pursuits,  yet always turn away from them at some point.  Looking back,  I often question the time, energy and money to pursue, acquire and collect things, from books to coins to baseball cards from 100 years ago&#8230;those material possessions that you are only temporarily a custodian over.</p><p>I never regret a day watching races.  I&#8217;m in the moment, present and fully enjoying it.  I&#8217;m always posing new questions,  new riddles, new problems to solve.  Even when I lose,  my spirit isn&#8217;t shaken.  Gambling on the ponies is to have skin in the game,  I believe it is one of the few games of skill in the gambling market place (while I love sports betting,  it&#8217;s quickly becoming less a game of skill &#8212; parleys, teasers, in game play,  juiced up odds beyond 110 &#8212; it&#8217;s often a lottery disguised as a skill game.</p><p>I&#8217;m watching great racing from Dubai right now.  Streaming in pure HD on Racetrack TV.  William Buick worked out a trip to get Creative Story  home and it was a first class race.  Wow.  One minute of action,  complete with anticipating, rising action and a conclusion. While I only had $200 on Creative Story to win,  I hit the same emotional highs as a $10,000 bet on a football game.</p><p>Look at this billon dollar facility built in Dubai.  The future is bright,  it just not be at Gulfstream.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg" width="1280" height="853" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:853,&quot;width&quot;:1280,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:233931,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qdco!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f6158b1-26d1-4381-b9e9-2e2a93a4ed9f_1280x853.jpeg 424w, 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stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[It’s 5am in Cairo]]></title><description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s 5:20am here in Egypt.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/its-5am-in-cairo</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/its-5am-in-cairo</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 09 Feb 2025 03:53:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s 5:20am here in Egypt.  The call to prayer is echoing through the streets.  The Cairo Marriott and Omar Khayyam Casino is just waking up.  I spent a few hours in the smoked filled casino this morning playing 0/00 sucker&#8217;s roulette with some friends from Saudi Arabia.  In between ball drops, we talked horses - a common language for sure.  Then we talked Super Bowl.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3010922,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGGB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F87cbaa54-5412-4f74-9873-336ff5514af3_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Back in the room now, I&#8217;ve been working on the Sha Tin card.   It&#8217;s about 90 minutes to post.   I play just two kinds of bet in Hong Kong,  Place Bets and Swinger (Omni).   I love the Place Bets because of the high liquidity and good payouts.   I&#8217;m also not a Turf Expert or a Hong Kong Expert,  so why try to find value in the win pool when I&#8217;m not yet strong enough understanding the full picture?  In 5 or 10 more years,  maybe I&#8217;ll be good at.</p><p>Maybe I&#8217;ll never be.   And that&#8217;s OK too.    I&#8217;ve never been profitable in the Meadowlands on any wager type.   I haven&#8217;t checked the numbers on Turfway in a while,  but I am absolutely getting killed there this year.   I can&#8217;t even reliably tell you if a horse is going to hit-the-board.   Oaklawn isn&#8217;t far behind.    Focus on what you&#8217;re good at.</p><p>I take my own advice, occasionally,</p><p>As I work through Sha Tin on one monitor,  I&#8217;m grinding out small dollar bets in Australia (another project of mine).   One phenomenon about Australia is that every night session there is some sort of absurd Place or Show payout on the entry that I consider to be the justified favorite.   You can see below,  an $8.60 payout on a harness show bet ($6 ticket pays $25.80).   Harness, thoroughbreds and greyhounds&#8230;it doesn&#8217;t matter.  You can turn a slick little profit each day betting small amounts just by waiting for some good moments and having a little skin in the game.   It&#8217;s not glamorous,  nor is it a huge profit center for me - rather just action bets to keep me interested.</p><p>A big part of gambling is knowing your own strengths and weaknesses and knowing when the tote board serves you up an $8.60 show payout because of someone else&#8217;s mistake.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r9Ya!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17a9a947-e015-4ac5-9e00-aeb7b0beb16b_2360x1640.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r9Ya!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17a9a947-e015-4ac5-9e00-aeb7b0beb16b_2360x1640.png 424w, 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stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[International Racing is About Options]]></title><description><![CDATA[When bad weather strikes...international racing is a place to turn]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/international-racing-is-about-options</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/international-racing-is-about-options</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 27 Jan 2025 18:04:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aaa7053f-d5e6-4b66-9d43-1b6ade77156c_202x250.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>International racing is a haven for professional gamblers, especially right now with bad weather engulfing much of the country.   This has been one of the slowest racing months I remember,  going back well into December.  Lots off cancelled race meets, sloppy tracks and off conditions have made the handicappers job harder than it needs to be.  </p><p>Some notes about what I like:</p><p>Waking up with the UK,  France,  and South Africa.   </p><p>Why wait until noontime eastern to get going?  </p><p><strong>UK/France</strong></p><p>Decent liquidity.   I often pick one card and pick through it slowly.  <a href="https://www.skysports.com/racing/results/fast-results?reloaded=true">Sky Racing&#8217;s Fast Results</a> is a must because the coverage doesn&#8217;t linger long on any race once it&#8217;s over.  I use past performance information from The Racing Post.  It&#8217;s what a gambling newspaper and website should be:  Soccer, greyhounds, flats, jumps everything is comingled into a fabulous daily paper with PPs, commentary.</p><p><strong>Australia  </strong></p><p>Harness racing in the United States is my &#8220;Queen of the Night&#8221; but I&#8217;ve really got the Australian racing bug.   They race 7 days a week often with multiple meets,  <a href="https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/early-morning-horse-racing?utm_source=publication-search">their volume of racing is impressive</a>.  Their liquidity, however, is not.   It&#8217;s not clear to me if our pools are commingled or not but expect late odds changes and the tote can change dramatically.   Tools:   I use GTX software with the full comments on past performances (about 90% of entries will have comments).    I usually hold on each night until after midnight&#8230;at that point I&#8217;m too tired and off to bed.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mahoning vs Dubai Handle]]></title><description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve just watched two absolutely world class races in Dubai, part of the World Pool program.]]></description><link>https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/mahoning-vs-dubai-handle</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theprofessionalhorseplayer.substack.com/p/mahoning-vs-dubai-handle</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[J.B. Demers]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jan 2025 18:23:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0b301167-a2b1-41da-8fa0-ac654fa91248_275x183.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve just watched two absolutely world class races in Dubai, part of the World Pool program.   Thrilling, fast horses.  This product needs to be carried by more ADWs.  A shitty claiming race at Mahoning running at the same time had 5x amount of money bet on it.   Horseplayers in the U.S. need to support amazing racing where ever they find it - Dubai has it.  The television presentation and quality is world class as well.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-vC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc460177-6c01-4a1e-831d-5b28a37640ea_808x457.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-vC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc460177-6c01-4a1e-831d-5b28a37640ea_808x457.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d-vC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc460177-6c01-4a1e-831d-5b28a37640ea_808x457.png 848w, 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